History and the Future

France, the United States, and China 2050

In its first experiment of Examining History to Explore the Future, AWMF centered its work on France and the United States. Neither nation can afford to be shortsighted in its thinking about the strategic competition with China and the role of the transatlantic alliance. This aim of this project was to strengthen U.S.-French cooperation in a new intellectual forum as well as bring about a greater understanding of individual and shared challenges in Asia.

AWMF supported one French team and one American team to examine how France and the United States’ histories with China may influence their respective relations with China through 2050. Teams explored how their histories shaped:

• Future national interests and objectives;
• Perceptions of threats and challenges;
• Assessments of competitive and comparative advantages;
• Potential changes in the geo-strategic/geo-economic landscapes; and
• Aspects of national or strategic culture or collective memory.

Methodologically, teams were invited to create new kinds of analytic tools, exploit new or previously underutilized data, consult with experts outside the traditional international relations community, or incorporate concepts or approaches from orthogonally related fields. The teams also engaged with historical primary source material and secondary source material.

Each team researched and wrote a paper of approximately 20,000 words. Following this paper-writing period, the French team and the U.S. team held capstone discussions to analyze areas of convergence and divergence in their perspectives. AWMF published the two team papers and the capstone discussion findings in both French and English.